Freelance Data Scientist · Churn Prediction

Predict Which Customers Are About to Leave, 60-90 Days Before They Do

By the time a customer churns, it's too late. A churn prediction model identifies at-risk customers while there's still time to intervene, with the right offer, at the right moment, to the right person.

Get a Free Consultation How It Works

Works for e-commerce, SaaS, and subscription businesses

Deployed production models, not just notebooks

Remote worldwide · Free first call

The Math Behind Why Churn Prediction Matters

Retention is almost always more profitable than acquisition. These numbers explain why.

5×

Acquiring a new customer costs 5× more than retaining an existing one, making churn prevention one of the highest-ROI investments in your business

25%

A 5% increase in customer retention can increase profits by 25-95%, according to Bain & Company research on customer economics

60-70%

The probability of selling to an existing customer is 60-70%, vs. 5-20% for a new prospect, retained customers are your best sales channel

What a Churn Prediction Model Delivers

From raw behavioral data to a deployed scoring system in four stages.

Feature Engineering from Behavioral Data

I transform your raw transaction and engagement history into predictive signals, days since last purchase, purchase frequency decline, product category shifts, support contact patterns, and more.

Model Training & Validation

Multiple models compared (Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM) and evaluated on precision, recall, and AUC. The model is validated on data it has never seen to confirm real-world performance.

Churn Probability Scoring

Every customer gets a churn probability score (0-100%). You can filter, sort, and segment by score, immediately identifying your top 100 at-risk customers who need outreach today.

Explainability & Intervention Recommendations

SHAP values explain why each customer is at risk, so your team knows whether to send a discount, a product recommendation, a support check-in, or a cancellation prevention offer.

What You Receive

Trained Churn Prediction Model

A production-ready ML model with documented performance metrics, precision, recall, AUC, and confusion matrix on your actual data.

Customer Churn Probability Scores

Every customer scored 0-100% for churn likelihood, exportable to CSV or integrated into your CRM for immediate action.

SHAP-Based Explanation Report

Feature importance and individual SHAP values showing exactly which behaviors predict churn, so interventions are targeted, not generic.

Power BI Monitoring Dashboard (optional)

A live dashboard tracking churn risk trends, at-risk segment size, and intervention success rates over time.

Intervention Playbook

Specific, data-backed recommendations for what to do with high-risk, medium-risk, and recently-churned segments.

Related Projects

Case studies showing churn and retention analysis in action.

Retention Analysis · Power BI

Retail Revenue Decline Diagnosis

Identified 85% customer retention failure as the root cause of a 90% revenue collapse.

Customer Analytics · Python

E-Commerce Returns Analysis

Logistic regression and SHAP identifying the behavioral drivers of product returns.

Funnel Analytics · Path Analysis

Subscription Platform Journey Analysis

9,935 sessions mapped to find where users disengage before converting.

Common Questions

How much historical data do I need?

At minimum, 12 months of customer transaction or engagement history is ideal. 6 months can work for businesses with high transaction frequency. Less than 6 months makes it difficult to reliably detect churn patterns, I'll tell you honestly on the discovery call if your data volume is sufficient.

What counts as "churn" for the model?

We define churn together based on your business model. For subscription businesses it's cancellation or non-renewal. For transactional e-commerce it's typically "no purchase in X days", we set X based on your typical repeat purchase cycle. Getting this definition right is one of the most important parts of the project.

Will my team be able to run new predictions after you deliver the model?

Yes. The model is delivered with documentation and a simple scoring pipeline, you run new customer data through it to generate updated scores. I can also build an automated monthly re-scoring process if needed, or integrate with your existing CRM.

What if the model performance isn't good enough?

Before starting, I'll audit your data and give you a realistic performance estimate. If the data isn't sufficient to build a reliable model, I'll tell you that upfront rather than deliver something that looks impressive but doesn't work. Honest scoping is part of how I work.

Stop Losing Customers Silently

Know Who Is About to Leave, Before They Do

Tell me about your customer retention problem. First call is free, I'll tell you exactly what a churn model for your business would look like.

Book Your Free Consultation

Remote worldwide · adeyemi@adediranadeyemi.com